Unpredictable offensive wildcards for 2007
For the most part, players pretty much stay in-line with expectations or trends. You will get players like Ryan Howard or Jermaine Dye that will have a season that will blow away any forecasted expectations, but that will happen every year. After all, for every rule there is an exception. Just ask Pedro Martinez.
The toughest players to predict are those that have toiled away for 5/6 years as an average or below average player and then, out of nowhere, put up a season or two at an all-star level. Or, on the opposite end of the spectrum, players that have a horrible season sandwiched by 2 all-star worthy seasons are just as tough to predict.
Both of these types of players can make or break a fantasy team in any given year simply due to their inherent unpredictability. Some owners look at previous season statistics when doing their analysis and expect everyone to play at the same level in the following season. Others look at averages for the previous few seasons and expect everyone to return to that 'normal' production level. Neither process is perfect, and there isn't a golden rule that can be followed for these types of situations.
The best way I've found to decipher when a superstar player is on the last stages of his career, or if a player is just a late bloomer, is the same way I judge pretty much everything else. Look into their plate discipline statistics (strikeout/walk ratio) and their OBP/SLG numbers. It's possible to put up a fluke season for no other reason, but rarely do you see a buy with good on-base skills peak excessively. Below are a list of players that will be interesting to watch for this very reason during 2007:
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1b Todd Helton - Helton was a top 10 pick for 5 straight years, and his career numbers of .333/.430/.593 are debatably Hall of Fame worthy, but for the past 3 seasons his slugging percentage has dropped from .620 to .534 all the way down to .476 in 2006. He'll only be 33 during most of the 2007 season, so a rebound is certainly possible (see Frank Thomas), but how much do you want to gamble on it? He will be overvalued on draft day and if he's picked in the top 10 rounds and does not put up 30 home runs as a corner IF, you drafted him too high. Don't let the name fool you. (ROUND WORTHINESS - 11th)
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2b Jose Vidro - from 2000 through 2003, Vidro was as reliable as they came at 2b, hitting .310 -.330 during that time with 15-24 home runs. Since that time he's been an injury risk and has seen his slugging drop from .470 in 2003 all the way down to .395 in 2006. He also will only be 33 during most of the 2007 season. Some owners will draft Vidro based on his pre-2003 numbers, but it looks like his career is on a downward spiral. (ROUND WORTHINESS - 22nd)
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2b Dan Uggla - came out of nowhere in 2006 to hit 27 home runs as a 2nd baseman. That fact alone could jump him into the top 5 rounds of the 2007 draft. Some people have compared Uggla to Jorge Cantu who broke out in 2005 only to see his numbers drop almost in half in 2006. Uggla has much better plate discipline than Cantu, but it's not that good. Regardless, in Uggla's last 2 full minor league seasons, he hit 23 and 21 home runs. There is no reason to think he can't hit 20 home runs again in 2007 despite the sophomore slump talk. (ROUND WORTHINESS - 6th)
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3b Mark Teahan - Teahan was the top prospect in the Carlos Beltran deal back in 2004 despite not having a very impressive minor league career. He put up good OBP numbers, but slugged at a .409 clip during his 3 minor league seasons and had only 18 home runs. In 2006 alone, Teahan slugged 18 home runs and posted a slugging percentage of .517. Sometimes the scouts do know more than the statistics show. After all, why was this guy such a big prospect with such a low slugging percentage? Don't overvalue him, but don't expect a complete drop off back to 2005 numbers. (ROUND WORTHINESS - 12th)
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3b Morgan Ensberg - Ensberg has had 2 very solid seasons, in 2003 he hit 25 home runs with a .291/.377/.530 line. In 2005 he hit .283/.388/.557 with 36 home runs. Unfortunately for fantasy owners he also played in 2004/2006 and put up slugging percentages of .411 and .463. On a positive note for 2006, he did walk 101 times with 387 AB's - a ratio exceeded only by Mr. Bonds. What should we expect in 2007? It's an odd year, so does that mean a return to .550 SLG is imminent? He will be 32 during the season so he should be able to get back to his 30 home run potential. (ROUND WORTHINESS - 9th)
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3b Hank Blalock - he has consistently hit 20 home runs which partially hit his declining slugging percentage over the past 4 seasons (from .522 in 2003 down to .401 in 2006). He's never been a real good OBP guy and it looks like Blalock is someone to avoid in 2007. Not many positives here. (ROUND WORTHINESS - 20th)
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ss Carlos Guillen - Through the end of the 2003 season Guillen's career slugging percentage was under .400. In 2004, he came out of nowhere to more than double his career high in home runs AND stolen bases while slugging at a .542 clip with a .358 OBP. In 2005, Guillen then dropped back to his pre-2004 numbers while slugging .434, although he did put up a .368 OBP. In 2006, Guillen picked back up from where he left off in 2004, putting up a .400 OBP and .519 SLG to go along with 19 home runs and 20 stolen bases. A knee injury in 2005, probably was the cause of his disappointing 2004 campaign, so he's a solid bet to continue his production in 2007. (ROUND WORTHINESS - 5th)
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ss Jhonny Peralta - Peralta had the best season of his professional career in 2005 in hitting 24 home runs with a .292/.366/.520 line. He will only be 25 in 2007 and hopefully can attribute his 2006 season to the dreaded sophomore slump. That being said, he slugged under. 400 for the year, which was about his minor league average. His minor league slugging numbers were pretty much all over the place - slugging as low as .329 in AAA and .493 the very next year. He's young and, it seems, very inconsistent. (ROUND WORTHINESS - 12th)
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of Eric Byrnes - Byrnes has had two good seasons in the last three years, hitting 20/26 home runs and stealing 17/25 bases. In between these two seasons though, he hit .225/.294/.371 which is almost as bad as they come. Another negative is his average of about 37 bb's per year over these three years. He could end up going 20/20, but he's likely to hit around .250 with a .320 OBP. (ROUND WORTHINESS - 17th)
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of Juan Pierre - Pierre will always have a high value simply due to his ability to steal around 60 bases. Keep in mind though, his OBP over the last two seasons has only been .328. His numbers have slipped for two consecutive seasons and at this point it certainly seems like he benefited from the Coor's factor. It's impossible to ignore him due to his SB potential, but proceed with caution. (ROUND WORTHINESS - 8th)
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of Brad Wilkerson - When Wilkerson hit 32 home runs and walked 106 times back in 2004 at age 27 most analysts thought this was the beginning of a stellar fantasy career. Since that time though, his slugging has been .404 and .422 and his OBP dropped all the way down to .306 in 2006. It's beginning to look like 2004 was the peak of Wilkerson's career. (ROUND WORTHINESS - 19th)
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of Aubrey Huff - Huff has had two seasons with slugging percentages over .500 and/or on-base percentages over .360. The last time this happened though was 2003. For some reason he is still viewed by some as an elite bat. His .344 OBP and .469 SLG are pretty much right in line with his career averages and while better than average, he's not likely to get back over that 30 home run barrier consistently again. (ROUND WORTHINESS - 13th)
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of Aaron Rowand - Rowand broke through to the majors back in 2004 while hitting 24 home runs with 17 steals and a .310/.361/.544. Since that time he's had an OBP around .325 and a SLG around .415. His 2004 season definitely looks like the exception at this point. (ROUND WORTHINESS - 25th)
Due to the nature of this list, it's appropriate to stop at lucky #13. I think the only two guys on this list that look like they have good staying power are Carlos Guillen and Dan Uggla and it will be interesting to see how they fall in the draft. Both are top 5 round players based on their 2006 seasons, but I generally like to see more consistency from guys I'm picking in the top 5 rounds - especially if they've already reached their peak and I can't see either Guillen or Uggla topping 30 home runs. Then again, I never thought Bret Boone would either.
At the end of the season, we will revisit this list to see how these guys did. I'm betting that you will hear most of these guys names over the course of the 2007 season for one reason or another.
Published 11/18/06
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