Unknown Quantities will play a role on draft day (again)
Every year there are a couple players that come into the majors without much reliable information (or stats). From Ichiro Suzuki to Jose Contreras to Hideki Irabu foreign players are making more and more of an impact every season, and last year we even had Ryan Zimmerman starting in Washington on opening day less than a year after he was playing 3rd base for the University of Virginia.
This will affect your draft strategy due to the simple fact that ever since Hideo Nomo's and later, Ichiro Suzuki's, 'rookie' seasons, everyone is expecting a lot of production from these guys. Keep in mind that for each Hideo Nomo there are a couple Kaz Ishii's or Hideki Irabu's. This year there will probably be at least three foreign imports as Daisuke Matsuzaka, Akinori Iwamura and Kei Igawa will likely make their major league debuts in April. All three are relatively young - 26, 27 & 27 respectively and have had a lot of success in the Japanese League.
Matsuzaka is the most publicized of the three and that seems to come from the fact that he's been successful since his first day with the Seibu Lions - at 19 years old he was 16-5 with a 2.60 ERA. Over his 8 year career in Japan, he was 108-60, averaged 8.7 k/9 and started 25 games or more in 6 of those seasons.
Iwamura also made his debut at age 19 with the Yakult Swallows, but it took him 4 years to really breakout. Over the past 3 years, he's averaged about 35 home runs per season and posted an OBP around .390. As a point of reference, Hideki Matsui was averaging around 43 home runs in his last 4 seasons in Japan and Tadahito Iguchi averaged around 22.
Igawa didn't have much success until his 3rd season with the Hashin Tigers, posting a 2.67 ERA with 171 k's in 192 IP at age 22. Over the next 6 seasons, Igawa put up numbers that were just as good as Matsuzaka's including a 20-5 campaign with a 2.80 ERA and 180 k's in 206 IP. For his career in Japan he was 85-60 with 8.5 k/9 and started more than 25 games each year after 2001.
From the college ranks, Andrew Miller and Evan Longoria could also both start the season at the big league level. Miller made a few appearances with the Tigers last season and posted a 6.10 ERA and had 6 k's and 10 bb's in 10 1/3 IP. In Lakeland he threw 5 innings and struck out 9 with 1 bb. It's tough to make the jump from college directly to the majors in a one year period. Rookie pitchers with minor league experience generally take a few years to develop. See Jeremy Bonderman for example. The Fransisco Liriano's of the world are few and far between. Miller should get some time to develop in AAA, not only to help him improve, but also to ensure the Tigers are getting a solid contributor before continuing the arbitration clock.
Longoria hit .315 with 18 home runs in 248 AB's during his first minor league season, but didn't impress in AA - hitting .267 with a .752 OPS. He seems likely to start the year in AA, and most likely will, but crazier things have happened.
Overall, everyone listed above has a shot to help you in 2007, but most likely they will be overvalued and drafted higher than they should. Igawa looks to be a similar pitcher to Matsuzaka, but he won't be drafted anywhere nearly as high. He might be the only steal in this group simply due to the press that Matsuzaka will command.
In life, and especially in fantasy sports, everyone is looking for the next big thing. Picking the boring 20 home run hitters or 150 strikeout pitchers isn't something that will excite you during the draft so people tend to take risks that sometimes don't make much sense. Don't let that happen to you.
Published 11/18/06
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