The Power of the Double
By Sparky
One of the more baffling aspects of fantasy baseball to most people has always been the complete change in perception regarding players from one season to the next. This discussion will focus on the increased production of Garrett Atkins in 2006. I drafted him in a long-term keeper league prior to last year and then subsequently traded him in a deal two months later that brought me Adam LaRoche and Gary Sheffield. Before I accepted the trade, I posted questions on several fantasy discussion boards about his future and opinions on whether or not I should trade him.
The response was unanimous. Good batting average, but so little power that he would struggle to keep a roster spot in the coming seasons. Opinions were such that he would be traded shortly to make room for Ian Stewart, Colorado’s prized third base prospect. Fast forward to a year later and common projections for him are 30-40 home runs with a .330 average. How did this change in such a short period? For a closer look, let’s take a look at his career stats:
|
Year |
Team |
Age |
Level |
G |
AB |
R |
H |
2B |
HR |
RBI |
BB |
SO |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
|
2002 |
Carolina |
22 |
AA |
128 |
510 |
71 |
138 |
27 |
12 |
61 |
59 |
77 |
0.271 |
0.345 |
0.406 |
|
2003 |
Colo Spr |
23 |
AAA |
118 |
439 |
80 |
140 |
30 |
13 |
67 |
45 |
52 |
0.319 |
0.382 |
0.481 |
|
2004 |
Colo Spr |
24 |
AAA |
122 |
445 |
88 |
163 |
43 |
15 |
94 |
57 |
45 |
0.366 |
0.434 |
0.578 |
|
2005 |
Colorado |
25 |
MLB |
138 |
519 |
62 |
149 |
31 |
13 |
89 |
45 |
72 |
0.287 |
0.347 |
0.426 |
|
2006 |
Colorado |
26 |
MLB |
157 |
602 |
117 |
198 |
48 |
29 |
120 |
79 |
76 |
0.329 |
0.409 |
0.556 |
The first stat that jumps off the page is the monumental home run increase in 2006. He had never even hit over 15 home runs in a season before breaking out last year with 29 dingers. A common explanation for this jump is simply that he was a “doubles machine” in the past and was able to turn a lot of those doubles into home runs in ‘06. If that theory holds true we should be able to see an increase in home runs per at bat and a related decrease in doubles per at bat. Let’s see if that is the case, by taking a look at Atkins extra base hits as percentage of at bats:
|
Garrett Atkins |
|
||||||
|
Year |
Team |
Age |
Level |
HR Rate |
Dbl Rate |
Combined |
Diff |
|
2002 |
Carolina |
22 |
AA |
2.4% |
5.3% |
7.6% |
2.9% |
|
2003 |
Colo Spr |
23 |
AAA |
3.0% |
6.8% |
9.8% |
3.9% |
|
2004 |
Colo Spr |
24 |
AAA |
3.4% |
9.7% |
13.0% |
6.3% |
|
2005 |
Colorado |
25 |
MLB |
2.5% |
6.0% |
8.5% |
3.5% |
|
2006 |
Colorado |
26 |
MLB |
4.8% |
8.0% |
12.8% |
3.2% |
From the above table, we do see that Atkins home runs per at bat did jump in 2006, but surprisingly so did his doubles per at bat. This 12.8% combined 2B/HR rate compares favorably to the 13% rate he put up in AAA back in 2004. To give these numbers some perspective, here are the same percentages for players that hit over 30 home runs or 40 home runs in each of the last three seasons.
|
|
HR Rate |
Dbl Rate |
Combined |
Diff |
|
Average for over 30 HRs |
6.7% |
5.9% |
12.6% |
0.8% |
|
Average for over 40 HRs |
7.3% |
5.8% |
13.1% |
1.6% |
It appears that the combined rate for power hitters is about 13% while hitting a home run about 1% more home runs per at bat than doubles. At 27 years old, can Atkins take it up another level?
Are doubles rates and combined (home run and double) rates indicators for a breakout season? Let’s take a look at 2005 numbers to find 2006 breakouts that could have been predicted by using this hypothesis. I used the following filters from the 2005 season:
-
Players under age 28 (players that are still improving their skill levels)
-
A home run rate above 2.5% (this removes the singles hitters from the discussion)
-
A minimum of 300 at bats (remove players with small sample sizes)
-
Higher doubles rate than home run rate
This follows the same reasoning we used to justify Atkins breakout season and it should hold true if our theory holds water.
Below are the
results of this study:
|
Player |
2005 |
2006 |
% |
|
Hawpe,Brad |
9 |
22 |
144.4% |
|
Atkins,Garrett |
13 |
29 |
123.1% |
|
Hall,Bill |
17 |
35 |
105.9% |
|
Cuddyer,Michael |
12 |
24 |
100.0% |
|
Holliday,Matt |
19 |
34 |
78.9% |
|
Swisher,Nick |
21 |
35 |
66.7% |
|
Laroche,Adam |
20 |
32 |
60.0% |
|
Morneau,Justin |
22 |
34 |
54.5% |
|
Johnson,Nick |
15 |
23 |
53.3% |
|
Rivera,Juan |
15 |
23 |
53.3% |
|
Greene,Khalil |
15 |
15 |
33.3% |
|
Uribe,Juan |
16 |
21 |
31.3% |
|
Nady,Xavier |
13 |
17 |
30.8% |
|
Sizemore,Grady |
22 |
28 |
27.3% |
|
Castillo,Jose |
11 |
14 |
27.3% |
|
Patterson,Corey |
13 |
16 |
23.1% |
|
Utley,Chase |
28 |
32 |
14.3% |
|
Wells,Vernon |
28 |
32 |
14.3% |
|
Bay,Jason |
32 |
35 |
9.4% |
|
Cano,Robinson |
14 |
15 |
7.1% |
|
Crosby,Bobby |
9 |
9 |
0.0% |
|
Kearns,Austin |
18 |
24 |
0.0% |
|
Wright,David |
27 |
26 |
-3.7% |
|
Johnson,Dan |
15 |
14 |
-6.7% |
|
Buck,John |
12 |
11 |
-8.3% |
|
Shelton,Christopher |
18 |
16 |
-11.1% |
|
Martinez,Victor |
20 |
16 |
-20.0% |
|
Cabrera,Miguel |
33 |
26 |
-21.2% |
|
Tracy,Chad |
27 |
20 |
-25.9% |
|
Giles,Marcus |
15 |
11 |
-26.7% |
|
Barmes,Clint |
10 |
7 |
-30.0% |
|
Blalock,Hank |
25 |
16 |
-36.0% |
|
Peralta,Jhonny |
24 |
13 |
-45.8% |
|
Crisp,Coco |