What do Todd Helton and Barry Zito have in common?

What makes a better debate than discussing the most overrated and most underrated players in baseball??  We've gone to exhaustive efforts to review players at each position that we believe will give you a list that represents the best/worst values come draft day.

The qualifications for these ratings are widely based on public perception.  To qualify as being overrated, the player most likely would be a top 10 round pick.  To qualify as being underrated, we essentially think that the player will be a much higher pick in a 2008 draft vs. a 2007 draft.  This isn't a list of sleepers - for example, Ryan Zimmerman is poised for a great year, but everybody knows that, so in our opinion, he's not underrated, he's just a good pick this year.  Our intention with this list is to give you players that most publications won't be recommending.

Ready?  Set?  Go.

Starting Pitcher

If you had a pitcher strike out 6.15 guys per 9 IP and have a k/bb ratio of 1.5, where would you draft him?  15th, 20th round?  Me too - pass on Barry Zito.  He gets wins because he's on a good team, not because he's a good pitcher. 

Jeremy Bonderman will be 24 years old next year and is coming off the first 200 K season of his career.  He only won 14 games in 2006 so he will fly under the radar for one more year - but if he approachs 20 wins to go along with his other numbers, this will be the last year he won't be a top 5 pitcher.

Relief Pitchers

Joel Zumaya had a great year - and put up great numbers - but he won't be closing in 2007.  Todd Jones will be back in 2007 and odds are that Leyland will stick with him again - after all, if it ain't broke....

Brad Lidge struck out 104 guys in 75 innings in 2006.  This was during a bad season. 

Catcher

Jason Varitek had the worst season of his career last year and will be turning 35 in April.  Yet, people will still overrate him due to his defensive abilities and the high profile team he plays for.  He's still certainly a viable fantasy contributor, but his days as a top 10 catcher are behind him.

Mike Napoli started his major league career out with a bang by hitting 12 home runs in his first 3 months.  After that, things went downhill fast as he finished with 'only' 16 home runs for the season and hit only .228.  What you may not have noticed is his lofty .351 OBP.  This .351 OBP minus his .228 BAVG is .123 which ranks in the top 10 of all of baseball.  Now, we don't expect Napoli to be up in the ranks of Bonds, Gehrig and Ruth, he projects as more of a Adam Dunn type hitter, but from behind the plate, that is an outstanding weapon to have.

1st Base

Coming into the 2006 campaign there was some debate whether or not Helton was a top 20 pick.  Guess what?  He's not even close.  He hit .302 with 15 hrs in 2006 which is decent enough, but along with that, he slugged only .476 for the season.  He put up great OBP numbers (.402) but that isn't enough to overcome a crowded first base field.  Is he still a top 10 1st baseman?  That's the new Helton debate for 2007. 

On the flip side - Adam LaRoche snuck up on almost everyone last year.  When he originally came up he was projected as a guy that would take some time to develop his power swing, but by the time it happened everyone had forgotten about him.  LaRoche hit 32 HR's last year and will still be only 28 years old on opening day in 2007.  His extra base hit average (doubles plus triples plus home runs divided by at bats minus strikeouts) was in the same class as Albert Pujols.  It's a distinct possibility that even more of those doubles turn into home runs in 2007. 

2nd Base

There aren't a lot of 2B that are very highly thought of, so this was a tough choice, but I'll happily throw Dan Uggla's name out there.  Similar to Jorge Cantu in 2005, Uggla came out of nowhere in 2006 to become a top 3 rated player at his position.  He had an outstanding year in 2006, no doubt about it, but odds are against him maintaining that value in 2007.  Of course, I probably would have said the same about Jeff Kent in 1997.

In 2004, Orlando Hudson looked like he was poised for a breakout year - he hit .270/.341/.438 that season, but he took a big step backwards in 2005 ending up with numbers of .271/.315/.412.  A fresh start in Arizona for the 2006 season got him back on track.  Hudson set career highs in BA (.287), OBP (.355), and SLG (.454).  Those numbers make the 29 year old a worthwhile addition.  A few extra steals would be nice though.

3rd Base

Joe Crede finally had his breakout year in 2006, showing some of the promise expected from him going back as far back as 2002.  He set career highs in average, home runs and rbi's.  That being said, he still walked less than 30 times and ended the season with an OBP under .320. 

Garrett Atkins was probably a bigger name in the 2005 draft vs. 2006, but all he did in 2006 was hit .329/.407/.556 to go along with his 29 home runs and 120 RBI.  Probably one of the quietest breakout seasons in FLB history.  Another statistic that is nothing less than remarkable was his BB/K ratio.  Atkins finished the season with 79 BB and 76 K's - which is a very good indicator that his successful year was not a fluke.  Expect even better numbers in 2007.  This was probably the easiest pick the group.  Imagine if he did this for the Red Sox?  He'd be headlining Sportscenter every other day.

Shortstop

Hanley Ramirez was a monster in 2006, and has been a highly regarded prospect for years.  He hit .292/.353/.480 in his first full season at the MLB level, but do you realize that he's only had over 400 AB's twice in minor league career?  He also never had more than 10 home runs or over 40 steals.  We still think he'll be a good player in 2007, but some predictions have him going as early as the 3rd round.  I think I'll go after the Jason Bay's of the world that early.

How many SS's hit over 30 home runs in 2006?  If you guessed one, you are right, but his name isn't Miguel Tejada.  Believe it or not Bill Hall not only hit 35 home runs in 2006, but he also added 39 doubles to his resume.  Hall is the type of guy that will always fly under the radar.  He was never a big prospect, he's playing in Milwaukee, and he isn't even the more popular middle infielder on his own team (Rickie Weeks takes that honor).  In 2006, Hall set career highs almost across the board, and also posted a .346 OBP.  Quite a rise from his 2004 numbers of .239/.276/.374.  He will be available later than he should - make sure you make a run at him.

Leftfield

Hideki Matsui has averaged 23 home runs and 110 rbi's the last 3 full seasons he's played to go along with .298/.370/.482.  Do you think those numbers warrant a top 5 round selection?  I'd rather wait 5/10 rounds and select the next guy on this list.

Philadelphia management was so upset with Pat Burrell in 2006 that they didn't even play him full time in the 2nd half of the season.  Somehow he still ended the season with 29 home runs and 95 RBI in only 462 AB's.  This goes along with his .388 OBP and .502 SLG.  Fantasy owners can only hope he ends up playing elsewhere in 2007 and gets 550+ AB's.  He does play in a favorable ballpark, but he put up big numbers before Citizen's game into the mix.

Centerfield

Rocco Baldelli's rookie season envoked comparisons to Joe Dimaggio in some circles.  The only flaw with that comparison is his unbelievably bad plate discipline.  In 2006 Baldelli amassed 70 K's with only 14 BB's.  Some players can put together successful careers with poor strike zone judgement - Garret Anderson comes to mind - but I wouldn't bet on it.

Mike Cameron should be on this list every year.  He's no superstar, and he will hurt you in batting average, but he will help everywhere else.  Over his past 6 full seasons he's averaged over 20/20 and has a very good eye.  His Isolated OBP (OBP minus AVG) in 2006 ranked 3rd amongst all CF's - behind only Beltran, and Andruw Jones.

Rightfield

Jeff Francoeur had a better season in 2006 than any stats analyst would expect - myself included.  Francoeur's 29 HR's and 103 RBI's to go along with his age (23 as of opening day) make him an attractive looking target.  But look deeper - his BA in 2006 was only .260 and his OBP was a hard-t0-believe .285.  He might hit close to 30/100 in 2007, but he will hurt you in every other category.  Again, similar to Baldelli, these are the types of players we recommend you to avoid.

JD Drew probably has been one of the more overrated players in FLB over the last 6 years.  He's hit over 30 home runs exactly one time and had 100 RBI only once - in 2006.  That being said, Drew is a solid hitter, he will give you 20 home runs and hit .290 with an OBP approaching .400 (his career average is .393).  His 2006 season was a bit power starved - partially due to half his games being in LA - but remember that he was also coming off a broken wrist which he suffered in 2005.  A .300 average, .400 OBP, 25 home runs and 100 rbi is very reasonable.  His stock is low now.

Designated Hitter

It's tough to choose an overrated DH.  Odds are that you aren't going to get many appearances at DH unless you know what you are doing with the bat.  Ben Broussard is a solid contributor, but the worst of the lot.  He ended the year with 21 home runs, but had a tough 26/103 k/bb ratio during the season which is the 3rd straight year this has declined (52/95 in 2004, 32/98 in 2005).

Jason Giambi had a .401 OBP to go along with 37 home runs and 113 rbi.  An outstanding season by any stretch.  Normally this would guarantee a top 3 round selection.  Ironically this is where Giambi was normally drafted up until 2004.  Giambi is a great value pick if you aren't trying to win any morality awards.  His admitted steriod use has played a big part in the opinion of fantasy owners since that season.  He's a steal anywhere after the 5th round - age not withstanding.

So here's the list...

Published 11/18/06

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