Constructing a winning draft strategy
There are many different ways to win a fantasy league. As you know by now, my strategy is based around certain stats that I believe to better represent a player's true skill level - slugging, on-base and plate discipline numbers for hitter's and strikeouts and walks for pitchers. The reasoning behind this is that players that excel in these areas are more likely than others to have a sustainable breakout season. If you look at a lot of fluke seasons over the years, you won't find many where the batter had more than 100 walks, or the pitcher had more than 200 strikeouts.
Whether or not you believe in my methodology, the best way to have a successful draft is to get the best value out of every pick you make. To do this, you need to factor in the following;
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What players are overrated?
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What players are underrated?
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What players are due to have a breakout season?
The first 5 rounds of a draft are easy. You can go on auto-pilot for these 5 rounds and as long as you don't pick someone that is injured, you should still end up with 5 of the top 50 players in the game. Winners and losers aren't decided that early in the game. The one factor you need to keep in mind is that the strategy you put forth in the early rounds will dictate the deals you will get later in the draft. What I mean by this is if you focus on pitching, or speed in the early rounds, you will likely be looking for the opposite later in the draft. In order to take advantage of the deepest positions you need to determine which positions have the most depth. Per my analysis, I'd rank position scarcity or overall positional production as follows:
Position Rankings
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Good place to get decent home run potential and very good speed. Target one of the top 4 guys early. |
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A lot of talent here, but you do need to fill anywhere from 5-7 spots. |
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The top 10 3b averaged 40 doubles last year. More than the OF's or 1B. Will these translate to home runs in 2007? This is a very deep and young group. |
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Upwards of 20 different first basemen could hit 30 home runs. |
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Johan and not much else that you can depend on. |
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No catcher hit 30 home runs, scored 100 runs or drove home 100 runs in 2006, if you are the last person in the league to choose a catcher, you will probably end up with someone that could hit 20 home runs in 2007. |
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Utley and Cano are the class of this group, after that, from #3 - #14, they are all pretty close. |
What this will tell you is that unless you want to make at Utley/Cano in the first couple rounds, avoid taking a 2B until late in the draft and if you want a great shortstop early, it is probably a worthwhile choice.
The most overvalued quantities in fantasy baseball are saves and steals. Unfortunately you have to reach a bit to go after saves, but in general try to avoid drafting any closers before the 10th round. Regarding steals, try to avoid the Juan Pierre's and Scott Podsednik's of the world. They will help you in the runs and steals category, but if they pull a hamstring, they hold absolutely no value. A better approach is to target as many potential 20/20 guys as you can. If you can fill your roster with guys that can steal a few bags (5 here and 10 there will add up quickly) you are better off overall. Try to target a balaned player at every position. Russell Martin and Derrek Lee have additional value due to their steal totals and they won't hurt you elsewhere.
Also - target guys with positional flexibility. Someone like Miguel Cabrera was eligible at OF and 3B in 2006 and could cover a lot of different slots in the lineup in case of injury. Players like Lance Berkman, Gary Sheffield, and Troy Glaus should have extra value if they qualify for multiple positions in 2007.
Published 11/18/06
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