In Search of: Draft Day Bargains
In the past couple of weeks I’ve participated in a few mock drafts and one thing is for certain – there are a lot of players available at discounted prices. In almost every one of these drafts, for the first time that I can remember, the outfield pool doesn’t seem as deep and quality first basemen and third basemen are lasting late into the night. You should focus early and often on getting a few of these quality outfielders and setting yourself up for a few of the corner IF bargains that will be available later on. You can see evidence of this on the updated cheat sheet where I have 19 outfielders listed in the first 6 rounds and only 10 outfielders listed in rounds 7 through 14. This is a more top-heavy position than in recent years, so be prepared to take advantage of it. The fact that outfielders should be targeted early is a 180 degree turn from the normal draft strategy that has been used in the past and probably will not be known by your competitors until it's too late, so there is good opportunity here.
As for the other positions, most teams are staying away from catchers and second basemen until the later rounds. This is a great strategy going in, but don’t be afraid to jump at the guy you want in round 15 if people haven’t started a run at either position. A few guys behind the plate and at second base have the potential to vault into being a top 10 round pick next year.
Pitching is generally avoided during the first four or five rounds – you will see Santana go early (obviously) and Carpenter/Halladay are generally the next two to go, but there are a few high-ceiling guys that you should be jumping on around round 5/6.
Without further ado – here are the top bargains I’ve found lately.
Catcher
Russell Martin. As a 23 year old in 2006, Martin had a very good rookie year. He started the year in AAA and was called up after less than a month. His numbers are slightly deflated due to the fact that he only had 415 AB’s, but he still put up 10 home runs and 10 stolen bases. A jump to 15 home runs and 15 stolen bases isn’t out of the question, but I’ve seen him last until the 20th round in some drafts.
Runner Up – Chris Iannetta. Most people don’t even seem to know that this guy exists and from reports I’ve seen, he supposedly isn’t guaranteed a starting job, but you don’t need to worry about Yorvit Torealba or Javy Lopez stealing AB’s from him. Iannetta will win the job and if his minor league numbers (career - .303/.410/.517) are any indication, he is more than ready for the job. He has hit 13/16 home runs over the past 2 years from Mid-A ball in 2005, all the way to Colorado in 2006, so he does have some quality power potential, but I’d pencil him in for about 12 home runs in 2007. Anything above that will be gravy.
First Base
Adam LaRoche. People just don’t like this guy for some reason, but the production is there – over the past three years his home run totals have increased from 13 to 20 to 32 and his walk total has increased from 27 to 39 to 55. (In fairness, he did also increase his strikeout total from 87 in 2005 all the way up to 128 in 2006.) Despite this, LaRoche is lasting until the 20th round in some drafts. I should also mention that he has never had a 500 at bat season, and usually has hit in the 5th, 6th and 7th spots in the order. Moving up to the cleanup spot and giving him 550 AB’s isn’t going to reduce his production. He’s a steal where he’s going.
Runner Up – Lyle Overbay is very similar to Adam Laroche in that he’s generally been a 15-20 home run hitter and has been around for a few years, so he’s being overlooked. In 2006, he reached .500+ SLG for the first time in his career led by the 46 doubles he hit, and I’m willing to bet that Overbay’s 2007 season looks a lot like LaRoche’s 2006 when all is said and done.
Second Base
Ian Kinsler. Rumor has it that Kinsler might start the year in the 9-hole in the Rangers lineup, but I’m betting that he won’t stay there for long. His rookie year numbers were dwarfed a bit by the fact that he missed a lot of time early in the year and only played 120 games. His 14 home runs and 11 steals would look a lot nicer if they were 19/15 instead (prorated to 162 games). Kinsler wasn’t a one year wonder either – in 2005 (at AAA) he hit 23 home runs and stole 19 bases. There is no reason he can’t match those numbers in 2007. While Weeks and Kendrick are getting all the attention, Kinsler’s production could exceed both of them.
Runner Up – Orlando Hudson falls into the same class as Lyle Overbay and Adam LaRoche, since he’s been around for 5 years now and hasn’t made much of a fantasy impact. However, the move to Arizona seemed to do Hudson a lot of good in 2006 as his bat showed the improvement most were expecting to happen in 2005. His 15 home runs and 61 walks were both career highs as he reached the 500 AB plateau for the first time in his career. He’s probably not going to hit 20 home runs, but he should be able to repeat his 15 home runs and if he bats leadoff in an improved Arizona lineup, 15 home runs and 100 runs isn’t out of the question. All this for a guy that will probably open the year on your league’s waiver wire.
Third Base
Chipper Jones. Do you remember when Chipper was a top 10 pick? Only 2/3 years later and he’s now dropped down to the 10th round due to injuries. His production hasn’t slipped at all when he’s healthy, as he’s still hit 77 home runs in these 3 years, without once having 500 AB’s. He is 35 years old, and he is injury prone, but he’s a very good risk. Seeing Jones end the year with a .300 BA and 35 home runs is a real possibility.
Runner Up – Troy Glaus doesn’t get much credit these days, and I think it’s because he’s been around so long and has never put up MVP type numbers. Over the past 2 years he’s hit 75 home runs and driven in 201 runs. He has only hit over .260 once in his career, so he is going to go late in the draft, but why is Adam Dunn a top 6 round pick and Glaus is going 6/7 rounds later?
Outfield
Raul Ibanez had a career year in 2006, and nobody is going to dispute that. He won’t approach 31 home runs again, but don’t write him off simply due to that. He’s a consistent 20 home run threat with a career average of .284.
Runner Up – Jason Kubel reminds me a lot of Michael Cuddyer in that he’s been ready for a starting spot for the last couple of years, but just hasn’t been given the opportunity. He is the front runner for the DH job in Minnesota, and with 500 AB’s, he is capable of 25 home runs. A great bargain for someone who isn’t being drafted in most leagues.
Starting Pitcher
Matt Cain/Cole Hamels/Felix Hernandez – I couldn’t figure out which one to select from this group, so I decided to take all of them. Each of these guys could strikeout 200 hitters in 2007 and each of them are being drafted after more ‘proven’ winners. Each of these guys has a risk associated with them (but what young pitcher doesn’t) – Cain has had control problems during his professional career, Hamels has been as injury prone as they come, and Felix Hernandez can’t even drink legally yet. Regardless, these guys are way too talented to let them last until the 10th round. We saw Justin Verlander and Fransisco Liriano win leagues in 2006 and each of these three could put up better numbers than Verlander of Liriano in 2007.
Closers
Bob Wickman/Todd Jones. The 35+ soft-tossing closers get absolutely no love. Both Jones/Wickman will both put up good numbers in 2007, but I’m seeing the likes of Joel Pineiro being drafted ahead of these guys. Experience has to mean something, right? If either of these guys save 35 games will you be surprised? I won’t – but if Pineiro or Joe Borowski does, I’ll be shocked
Keep an eye on these guys as you prepare for your draft. They aren’t the ‘sexiest’ players available – but they will be on more winning teams in 2007 than you’d imagine.
Copyright ©
2006-2007 thebaseballjunkie.com. All rights reserved.
The information contained here may
not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without the
prior written authority of thebaseballjunkie.com.
Home │
Draft Prep
│
Market
Watch │
Injuries │
Teams │
Prospect Watch
│Downloads │
Message Board │
Contact Us