Top 10 Starting Pitching Risks

Every season there are high risk players available and no position is generally affected by this more than starting pitchers.  Heading into the 2008 season there seems to be more players that could be on the verge of seeing their fantasy value decrease lower than any other point during their career.  Below is a list of the players that have showed great promise at previous points in their careers and are hopeful for one last season of glory.

1) Pedro Martinez was without a doubt one of the best pitchers of our time.  In the past two seasons, however, he has thrown for a combined 160 2/3 innings while winning 12 games.  His 169 strikeouts is a very respectable number and his strikeout rate still looks to be an asset.  Reports this spring have been very positive and since he is pitching for one of the better teams in baseball, he is still being picked in the top 150 players.  While a 15th round pick doesn't constitute overspending in this case - at 36 years of age, is it realistic to expect him to throw more than 160 innings in 2008?

2) Roy Hallday has been one of the more overrated pitchers over the course of the last few years, and in 2007 he pitched more than 220 innings for the 2nd year in a row.  The last time he pitched more than 220 innings in consecutive year, he pitched under 150 innings in each of the next two seasons.  Even if you view that fact as being meaningless, keep these numbers in mind.

Over the past 3 years, Halladay has seen almost all his numbers regress.  He'll be only 31 on opening day, but he does have a lot of mileage on his arm and has never been a big strikeout pitcher.  If his control continues to suffer he won't be adding much value.

3) Randy Johnson is an obvious name for this list - after all, he will be 45 years old before the season ends.  His numbers last year, when healthy, however were nothing less than exemplary.  His strikeout rate of 11.5 and walk rate of 2.1 would have ranked amongst the best in baseball had he thrown an extra 100 innings or so.   He's not being drafted until the final rounds in most drafts, and while there is no guarantee that he makes any impact in 2008, he's worth a look that late in the draft. 

4) Jason Schmidt is another big name pitcher coming off of a serious injury in 2007.  He pitched only 25 innings in 2007 and even when he was healthy, he wasn't an impact pitcher anyway.  The 35 year old posted a strikeout rate of 7.9 with a walk rate of 5.0 while allowing over 11 hits per 9 innings. 

5) Roy Oswalt is considered a top 10 pitcher in some formats - and based on his career that's tough to argue with.  However, take a look at the chart below.

In the last three seasons, Oswalt has seen his win total and strikeout rate decrease annually and in 2007, he posted the worst walk rate of his career.  Is this someone for whom you'd rank as one of the top 10 pitchers.

6) Rich Harden has thrown for a combined 200 1/3 innings over the past 3 seasons.  However, he has been very successful when he was on the mound - with 197 strikeouts and allowing only 142 walks. 

7) Andy Pettitte has 46 wins over the past 3 seasons and has been one of the most durable pitchers in baseball during this time.  However, his hit and walk rates in both 2006 and 2007 haven't been overly impressive.  This fact, combined with his tumultuous offseason makes him a huge risk.  Physically, he's not the same pitcher he was a few years ago, and who knows how he will respond mentally following an offseason in which he admitted to prior drug use and had to testify about this 'close friend' Roger Clemens.

8) Mike Mussina's 2007 season was the worst of his career and it came off the heels of a 2006 season which was his best since 2003.  See below for the extreme downfall that took place in 2007.

The 39 year old Mussina is only one year removed from being a solid fantasy option on the mound, but he fell so far in 2007 and at his age, is a rebound possible?

9) Jose Contreras is yet another aging pitcher to make the list and it's doubtful that many have targetted him within the last 4 years, but take a quick look below at his performance since the 2004 season. 

Despite his improved walk rates during this time, his strikeout rates have fallen drastically while his hit rate has continued to increase.

10) Curt Schilling might not even appear in a major league game in 2008 due to a shoulder injury.  He will start the year on the 60-Day DL and even when he does return, he has to face the fact that he has seen his hit rate hover around 10 for the last couple of years while his strikeout rate dropped to a career low 6.0 in 2007. 

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