2008 Predictions - 13 Safe Bets

Entering the 2008 season, there are a few stories that we will be keeping a close eye on.  After pouring through stats from the past few seasons, I started to document my expectations for the 2008 season based on the numbers I was seeing.  A few of these may seem fairly obvious, but I doubt everyone will agree with all 13.

Prediction #1) Joe Mauer will hit over .300

Mauer hasn't shown as much power as we would like to see from a premier position player (even for a catcher), but his strikeout rate has been exceptional.  Especially for his age.  He will be only 25 years this season, and during his four year major league career, he has never struck out in more than 13.1% of his at bats. 

2) Ivan Rodriguez will increase his walk total from 2007

By no means does Ivan Rodriguez have solid on-base skills, he has drawn only 46 walks in 3 years, including 7 intentional walks, but I don't see how it's possible that he draws less than 10 walks for a second consecutive year.

3) Justin Morneau will hit over .300

Morneau followed up his 2006 MVP season with a disappointing 2007 by hitting only .271 with 31 home runs.  Hidden in those numbers, however is the fact that he made marginal improvements in his strikeout and walks rates.  He won't turn 27 until May 15th and expect a big rebound season.

4) Todd Helton will hit over .320

Helton's power may have disappeared in the last 3 years, but that hasn't affected his batting average.  Dating back to 1999, Helton has hit over .320 in 8 of his last 9 seasons.  He's as safe a bet as their is in baseball and has player over 140 games in each of the last 10 years.

5) Richie Sexson will hit over .250

This may not seem like much of an accomplishment, but did you realize that Sexson hit .205 in 434 at bats last year?  He hadn't hit less than .263 since he became a regular player in 2001.  His strikeout rate has never been pretty, but his rate of 23% last year was the LOWEST of his career.  Think about that - what are the odds of a 32 year old player putting up the lowest strikeout rate of his career and hitting .050 below his previous career low batting average.  His power numbers remained solid at 47%, which was consistent with his 2006 rate.  He's a great buy low candidate in any draft.

6) This is Dan Johnson's last chance with Oakland

Johnson's peripheral numbers have always been very good, but as of yet, that hasn't translated to any success at the major league level.  During his brief 3 year career, he has struck out in less than 16% of his at bats, and has walked in more than 12% of them while having close to 40% of his hits fall for extra bases.  Nevertheless, the 28 year old hasn't hit over .240 in the last 2 seasons and will enter 2008 hoping that a breakout season is on the horizon.

7) Dustin Pedroia will hit over .320

Pedroia has 1,649 at bats during his professional career and has struck out only 126 times (7.6%).  Even while struggling in his 2006 debut (hitting .191) he still kept his strikeout rate below 8%.  He's not going to be a big speed or power guy, but if the top 2B guys fall off the board quicker than you were expecting, Pedroia could be a huge asset with his batting average.

8) Ryan Durham will exceed expectations

Yes, Durham will be 37 in November of this year and yes, he's coming off of a season in which he hit .218 with 11 home runs and 10 steals.  However, his strikeout rate of 16% and walk rate of 10% show that he was a victim of some bad luck in 2007.  Durham had never hit below .250 during his major league career, and while his run production will be limited in San Fransisco, expect him to end 2008 closer to .270 than .220.  In deeper leagues a 10/10 .270 hitting middle infielder could have a lot of value.

9) Ryan Zimmerman will end 2008 with a higher average than Ryan Braun

Believe it or not, Ryan Zimmerman is actually younger than Ryan Braun.  Also, take a look at the below numbers and tell me who you'd prefer in 2008.

 

Name	BB/K	K/AB	BB/PA	XBH/H
Player A	48.8%	19.1%	8.5%	41.4%
Player B	25.9%	24.8%	6.0%	45.2%

You've probably guessed that Zimmerman is player A and Braun is player B.  Now, knowing this, would you expect Braun to hit almost 60 points higher than Zimmerman in 2008?  Also, Zimmerman has seen his strikeout rate decrease for 3 consecutive years and is moving into a better offensive ballpark in 2008. 

10) Chone Figgins won't hit .330 in 2008

Figgins has played 4 seasons at the major league level, and had not hit over .300 until 2007.  He also had never struck out in more than 17% of his at bats until 2007, during which he struck out at an 18% clip.  Somehow, these combined factors ended with Figgins hitting .330 in 2007.  Don't expect a repeat.

11) Alex Gordon reminds us why he was the #1 prospect in baseball a year ago

Gordon is still only 24 years old, and is coming off a rookie season in which he hit 36 doubles, 15 home runs and stole 14 bases.  Yes, he hit only .247 and struck out in 25% of his at bats, but 7% walk rate and 41% extra base hit rates both bode well for his future.  Expect him to improve across the board and to come closer to hitting .280 with 25 home runs and 25 steals in 2008.

12) Jose Reyes will hit over .300

Reyes has slightly over 2,500 career at bats and with a strikeout rate just over 12% and speed that has produced 234 stolen bases, you'd expect him to be a perennial .300 hitter, but he's coming off a season in which he hit only .280.  Expect that to improve in 2008.

13) Vernon Wells will hit over .280

Fresh off signing a $126M contract, Vernon Wells put up the worst season of his career after seeing his strikeout rate increase for the 3rd consecutive season.  Despite these facts, his strikeout rate was still only 15% and with any luck he should easily see his average jump back over .280.
 

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