Total Bases

by thebaselljunkie.com
Issue 9, Volume 1
June 11, 2007

Welcome!

Welcome to Total Bases, thebaseballjunkie.com's bi-monthly newsletter!  If you haven't checked out our daily box score review, do so now!  It's on the front page of both the member/non-member section and is a daily review of the previous day's games.  It's a must read for any fantasy baseball GM. 

Fantasy Baseball News

• Chone Figgins has finally started to show why he was drafted as high as the 5th round in some drafts this year.  He's now hitting 2nd in the Angels lineup and on the basepaths, Figgins and Willits are both creating havoc for opposing teams.  Figgins will never help you in the HR/RBI categories, but he's 21 for his last 40 with 10 steals in his last 9 games.  His bb/k ratio is average (9/18), so don't expect him to keep this up for too long, but enjoy it while you can.
• Casey Kotchman is another Angel that has been making significant strides lately with 4 home runs in his last 44 at bats.  He has 23 extra base hits now in 186 at bats, and is looking like a very solid keeper candidate at the first base position.  The knock against Kotchman has always been his power, but he's quickly changing that perception.  He will hit for a good average as evidenced by the fact that he has only 15 strikeouts this season against 23 walks.  .330 with 15-20 home runs isn't out of the question.
• Connor Jackson is another first baseman that has been working to change the perception of his extra base hitting ability.  While his power hasn't translated into home runs quite yet, he recently went on a run of extra base hits with 13 extra base hits in 14 games.  For the record, he has only 18 on the year and if you can still buy low on him, do so now.
• Josh Beckett recently returned from the DL and picked up right where he left off.  His record now stands at 9-0 with a 2.88 ERA and 67 k's in 72 IP.  It's been a great year for Beckett - he's finally having the breakout season we've been waiting on for 5 years.
• Aaron Hill is in the midst of a breakout season this year as well and already has set his career high in home runs with 8.  He also has 17 doubles and 23 walks in 225 at bats, and at age 25 is looking like he could be one of the top AL second baseman for years to come.
• Yuniesky Betancourt has a 20 game hitting streak and has increased his average all the way up to .308.  He hasn't displayed much power this year with only 18 extra base hits in 202 at bats and he isn't a great asset in the speed department either with only 3 steals. 
• Bobby Abreu is finally looking like, well...Bobby Abreu.  His average in the month of June is .440 and he has 6 extra base hits in 34 at bats.  He also has 9 walks during this time and is looking like a valuable asset again.  We are still waiting on the home runs though...
• Michael Young has also been tearing it up lately with a .424 average in June.  Unfortunately, he doesn't do much else, with his last home run coming on May 6th.  He's a decent option at middle infield, but he's still very overrated.  His extra base hit percentage is below 10% and his bb/k ratio (16/39) certainly isn't going to impress anyone.  He's very durable and doesn't walk much, so his 650 at bat seasons make his numbers look better than he is.
• Garrett Atkins has recently shown signs of breaking out of his slump.  During a recent 3 game stretch he was 7 for 14 with 4 extra base hits.  His only impressive statistic for the year is his walk rate with 27 in 223 at bats.  His strikeout rate (38 in 223 at bats) is still good enough, but his extra base hit ratio of less than 10% is a real concern.
• Gary Sheffield is also looking like his old self and is now up to .270 on the year with 17 home runs.  His bb/k ratio (40/31) and his extra base hit rate (26 in 230 AB's) are both very positive signs, so ignore the fact that he's 38 and playing half his games in a pitcher's park.
• Corey Hart has been a real spark for Milwaukee since reclaiming his starting spot.  He's gone 16 for 42 in his last 12 games with 6 extra base hits and 5 steals.  He also has a 8 walks and 5 strikeouts during this time.  If he's still on waivers in your league, make a move to get him in your lineup.

   Rookie Watch

• Homer Bailey made his debut the other night and picked up his first win, but didn't look overly impressive in the process.  Bailey is a great talent, and you should ignore the stats from his first major league start for the most part, but keep in mind that Bailey had a 3.7 bb/9 ratio in AAA this year and is only 20 years old.  He's a great talent, but his AAA numbers aren't overly impressive (7.9 k/9 to go along with the aforementioned walk rate).  Don't expect too much in 2007 from him.
• Ryan Braun put up monster numbers in AAA this year with 22 extra base hits in 117 at bats and a 15/11 bb/k ratio.  Milwaukee obviously thinks highly of him as he's been inserted immediately into the 3-hole in their lineup.  He's been impressive so far with a .305/.345/.590 line and could be the best hitting AL rookie this year.
• Delmon Young has struggled a bit this year as we expected, mainly due to his poor plate discipline skills.  He's been streaky, and right now is in the middle of one of the good ones with 5 straight multi-hit games.  He did improve his bb/k numbers in May (9/22) from April (3/20).
• Josh Fields will take over for Joe Crede until he returns from the DL - and maybe even after he returns - depending on how he performs in the coming weeks.  Don't expect too much from him, he struck out 30% of the time in AAA this year, but does look to have excellent long term power potential. 

Prospect Watch

• Jon Lester looks close to returning to Boston's rotation with 31 innings under his belt at AAA Pawtucket.  He's still only 23 years old and threw 7 innings this past week.  He's obviously a great candidate for wins if nothing else once he returns.
• Joba Chamberlain is looking like he could be included in the 2008 group of top pitching prospects with 51 strikeouts and only 11 walks in 40 innings at High-A.  He was a late 1st round pick of the Yankees in 2006 and reaches 97 on the gun.
• Will Inman, Yovani Gallardo and Ben Sheets could form a heck of a pitching trio in 2/3 years.  Inman has dominated High-A this year with a 91 k's and 20 walks in 73.2 innings.  This is following up a very successful 2006 season during which he had a 134/24 k/bb ratio in A-ball. Our #19 pitching prospect coming into 2007 is quickly moving up the list.

Injury News

• Huston Street has been playing catch recently and is still targeting July for his return.
• Chipper Jones hopes to get back on the field this week and is hoping to return within a couple weeks.
• Mark Teixeira was placed on the 15 day DL with a strained left quad.  He'll be out until the end of June. 
• Rickie Weeks was placed on the DL with tendonitis in his wrist (the same wrist that sidelined him last season).  He's out until mid-June.
• Jason Giambi was placed on the 15 day DL and is likely finished for the season.  Johnny Damon has been DH'ing with Melky Cabrera taking over in CF.
• Lyle Overbay will miss 4/6 weeks with a fractured right hand.  Matt Stairs/Curtis Thigpen will see most of the time at first while Overbay is out.

Closer Watch

• Matt Capps has taken over the closer role in Pittsburgh.  He is a control pitcher and while his strikeout rate isn't going to impress anyone, he has pitched well this year and, more importantly, there aren't many (any?) other candidates in the Pittsburgh bullpen.
• Brad Lidge will take over the closer's job in Houston this week.  He's been dominant for the last month and has a k/9 over 13 for the season. 
• Antonio Alfonseca has taken over closing duties in Philadelphia and has been effective.  This should only last until Myers returns which has been targeted for June 18th.
• Brad Hennessey is the new closer in San Francisco with the trade of Armando Benitez.  He has very unimpressive career numbers and has been successful in 2007 with very uncharacteristic control.  His 4 walks in 24.1 innings are not inline with his career numbers entering 2007 of 109 walks in 251 innings.  I wouldn't expect him to last in this role for very long.
• Todd Jones has been terrible lately, with 10 runs allowed over a 4 game stretch from May 19th through June 1st.  His numbers on the year are some of the worst of any closer in baseball, but with Rodney having just returned from the DL and Zumaya still out, there aren't many other options in the Detroit bullpen.
• Octavio Dotel immediately took over the KC job when he returned from the DL.  It hasn't yielded many save opportunites yet and he hasn't been overly impressive when he has thrown.  On the year he has allowed 7 hits and 3 walks allowed in 6 innings. 
• Eric Gagne looks like he's back to his dominant self with 15 k's in 15 innings.  His 15/7 k/bb ratio isn't anything special, but the 15 k's are a very good sign and in his last 7.2 IP, he's only walked 2.
• Alan Embree is holding down the Oakland closing job until Street returns from the DL early next month. 

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